A decade after its initial release, Bitcoin is still making headlines and inspiring people from all walks of life to explore alternatives to traditional financial institutions. What also hasn’t changed is its volatility, which makes it difficult to predict where the popular cryptocurrency will be, let’s say, in 2020.
To help you better understand where Bitcoin is likely headed next year, we’ve gathered relevant Bitcoin price predictions from some of the most influential and respected figures in the crypto community. Just keep in mind that even the most successful Bitcoin investors in the world make mistakes, and nobody really knows how much Bitcoin will be worth in 2020.
2020 will be a special year for Bitcoin because that’s when one of the most anticipated events throughout the entire cryptocurrency community, a block reward halving, will take place.
A block reward halving, or just halving for short, is a fixed event in which the reward that miners receive for finding a block halves. A halving happens after every 210,000 blocks are mined. So far, there have been two Bitcoin halvings, with the first one occurring on November 28, 2012, and the second one occurring on July 9, 2016. When all bitcoins are mined sometime in 2140, miners will have to rely solely on fees received as an incentive to confirm Bitcoin transactions.
At the time of writing this article, the third halving is predicted to occur on May 23, 2020, with the coin reward decreasing from 12.5 Bitcoins to just 6.25 Bitcoins. The purpose of halvings is to limit the supply of Bitcoins and protect its value.
“The main reason why this is done is to keep inflation under control,” explains Vitalik Buterin, a Russian-Canadian programmer and writer who is primarily known as a co-founder of Ethereum. “Bitcoin, on the other hand, is intended to simulate a commodity, like gold. There is only a limited amount of gold in the world, and with every gram of gold that is mined, the gold that still remains becomes harder and harder to extract.”
Perhaps because cryptocurrency markets tend to be very event driven, halvings have so far always been followed by a prolonged bull run, as is shown on the graph below.
The Bitcoin price reached what was then an all-time high of $1,000 approximately 12 months after the first Bitcoin halving event in November 2012, and the 2016 halving ushered in 2017’s bull run, which reached its peak in December 2017, with the price of one Bitcoin reaching the current all-time high of $20,000.
If history decides to repeat itself one more time, there’s a chance that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in 2020. In fact, there are many people in the Bitcoin community who are even more optimistic, including the most controversial crypto advocate in the world, John McAfee.
Known for funding the software company McAfee, seeking the Libertarian Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2016 election, and being raided by national police based on suspicions of drug manufacture or trafficking, John McAfee is a well-known name in the crypto sphere with a reputation for making outlandish statements. Those who have been following McAfee on Twitter for some time were hardly surprised when he predicted that by the end of 2020 Bitcoin would be worth a staggering $1 million.
“Come on people!!! It's time to brush up your basic math skills and run some f*^#$ng numbers!!!! It is mathematically impossible for Bitcoin to be less than $1 mil by the end of 2020. Bitcoin is not an effing stock!!! You can't apply stock paradigms or formulas and expect answers!” tweeted McAfee on April 15, 2019.
McAfee is so confident in his prediction that he promised to, literary, eat his penis if Bitcoin is worth even a single dollar less than $1 million by the end of 2020. Of course, this isn’t the first time McAfee promised to eat his private parts if his Bitcoin price prediction doesn’t come true, so perhaps he’s just looking for an excuse to experiment with self-cannibalism but doesn’t have enough courage to go through with it.
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research Thomas Lee thinks that Bitcoin could rise to $91,000 by March 2020. Unlike McAfee, Lee doesn’t base his prediction on “basic math skills” and “f*^#$ng numbers.” Instead, he and Fundstrat maintain a large database of Bitcoin’s past performance to help them visualize short-term and long-term trends alike.
“Last year was a terrible year for crypto, a massive bear market, and we published a piece this week just highlighting … 11 signs that historically only take place in a bull market. So I think the evidence is mounting that there’s a bull market,” said Lee in an interview with CNBC.
The growing adoption of Bitcoin by people in Venezuela is one reason why Lee believes that the year 2020 could be huge for Bitcoin, arguing that people in the country don’t trust banks anymore. Lee is also aware of the dramatic influence institutional investors have on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and it’s certainly true that Bitcoin’s popularity among institutional investors in increasing.
While it’s true that Lee successfully predicted the recent bull run for Bitcoin, not all of his predictions were successful. For a long time, Lee believed that Bitcoin would reach $25,000 by the end of 2018, until he eventually lowered his prediction to $20,000 and then $15,000, neither of which had turned out to be true.
Plan B is a prolific Bitcoin trader and analyst that goes by the handle @100trillionUSD on Twitter. According to his recent analysis, Bitcoin should hit $55,000 by 2020. Plan B bases his prediction on a prediction model that plots Bitcoin’s value against scarcity. He also predicts that Bitcoin’s market cap will reach $1 trillion the same year.
“People ask me where all the money needed for $1 trillion bitcoin market value would come from? My answer: silver, gold, countries with negative interest rate (Europe, Japan, US soon), countries with predatory governments (Venezuela, China, Iran, Turkey etc), billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors discovering the best performing asset of last 10 years,” he explains.
Plan B himself understands that his prediction is only as good as his prediction model, but he’s excited to test it out, and he believes that it will prove to be accurate. His original Medium post has certainly managed to capture the attention of a sizable portion of the crypto community, and it has so far stood up to scrutiny.
Fran Strajnar is the CEO of cryptocurrency research firm Brave New Coin, and he still believes that the price of Bitcoin will hit $200,000 per Bitcoin by 1st January 2020 at the latest. Strajnar first made this prediction in 2018, arguing that the adoption rates, which heavily correlate with Bitcoin’s price, continue to be quite steady.
“Hashrates, number of wallets, apps, dapps … all that infrastructure is just steadily increasing, so adoption is most definitely happening and a lot easier to quantify, so we’re fairly confident with the fundamentals of Bitcoin,” he said.
It’s true that Bitcoin’s adoption has been nothing but healthy in 2019, with many major companies showing interest in the cryptocurrency and many Venezuelans embracing Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional financial institutions and payment methods in the turbulent country. Bitcoin is also increasingly adopted in Argentina, where the inflation rate has recently skyrocketed to its highest level since 1992.
Ronnie Moas, the founder and director of research at Standpoint Research, is a top-rated stock picker who has given more than 100 television, newspaper, radio, and magazine interviews since 2014. When Moas makes a public prediction, it’s almost guaranteed that it will be published in all major cryptocurrency publications within a day.
Since 2008, Moas has issued over 500 investment recommendations, which have earned him a #1 ranking against more than 3,500 other analysts. That should tell you something about his accuracy. Moas has compared the wealth proposition of cryptocurrencies to that of the dot-com boom, and he believes that Bitcoin will reach a price of $50,000 by late 2020.
Considering that his prediction is on the lower side compared with other predictions featured in this article, there’s certainly some chance that it will come true, which would instantly delight Bitcoin investors around the world.
Jim Blasko is the founder of Bitcoin Talk Radio, which is broadcasting up-to-date Bitcoin-related information 24/7, and he believes that Bitcoin could be worth up to $200,000 by the end of 2020 or early 2021. His prediction is based entirely on Bitcoin’s mining reward being cut in half, and we’ve explained in the first half of this article how exactly Bitcoin’s mining reward affects its price.
Because Blasko bases his prediction solely on Bitcoin’s past performance, simply guessing how much it could be valued in 2020 instead of using a more sophisticated method for calculating Bitcoin’s price, we would personally take his prediction with a grain of salt.
In this article, we have discussed several popular Bitcoin price predictions for the year 2020, ranging from $50,000 all the way to McAfee’s outlandish $1 million prediction. There are two things you should take away from this article: First, many prominent figures in the crypto community expect the price of Bitcoin to grow rapidly by the end of 2020. Second, there’s no consensus on how much Bitcoin will actually be worth. As a responsible investor, you shouldn’t base your investment decisions solely on the opinions of other people. Instead, learn as much about Bitcoin as possible until you become able to tell when someone doesn’t know what they’re talking about.