This week Bitcoin’s trajectory was shaped by fresh analysis and shifting sentiment. On-chain firm Glassnode reaffirmed that the market continues to follow its historic four-year cycle, even as ETFs and institutional treasuries reshape liquidity flows. At the same time, retail mood swung from optimism to fear, exposing how fragile sentiment remains. Beyond price action, institutions drew attention with new treasury strategies and share issuance plans, Beijing signalled a potential shift on yuan backed stablecoins, and a celebrity memecoin launch reignited scrutiny over insiders and market integrity. Together, these developments highlight a market that is maturing structurally yet still prone to sudden narrative swings.

Glassnode’s latest update reaffirmed that Bitcoin’s market behaviour continues to mirror prior halving cycles. Patterns in long term holder profit taking and cooling ETF inflows are consistent with past cycle phases, suggesting that the halving’s supply dynamics remain an important driver. Still, some analysts caution that large scale institutional adoption could lengthen or dampen these cycles, making this era different in important ways.

While the traditional rhythm has held so far, the reality is that Bitcoin has only been through four cycles, each unfolding under very different macro conditions. From retail driven markets in the early years to today’s landscape shaped by ETFs funnelling billions and corporations holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, history provides a useful but imperfect guide. Some analysts believe these differences could mark the early signs of a cycle that stretches longer or takes a different form. If there were ever a moment for Bitcoin to diverge from the familiar script, this cycle may be it.

Meanwhile, sentiment among retail traders swung to extremes. Analytics firm Santiment, which tracks on chain activity and social media chatter, reported that market mood turned “ultra bearish,” the lowest reading since June after Bitcoin slipped from its recent peak. Historically, such moments of heightened fear have sometimes coincided with better entry points for buyers, though they are not predictive in themselves. The shift was further reflected in search data, with global Google queries for “alt season” dropping by more than half in a week, a clear sign of how quickly optimism fades when prices retrace.

Institutional moves also shaped the narrative. Michael Saylor’s company Strategy saw its share price fall to a four-month low after signalling flexibility to issue more stock at lower valuations. Supporters view this as strategic positioning to expand Bitcoin holdings through downturns, while critics worry about dilution and a change from earlier commitments. Elsewhere, companies such as VERB disclosed large Altcoin allocations, showing how some public treasuries are branching into crypto currencies outside of Bitcoin. Investor reception to these strategies, however, remains mixed.

On the regulatory front, reports from China suggested the State Council may review a roadmap to permit yuan-backed stablecoins for cross-border trade. If approved, it would mark a significant reversal for one of the strictest jurisdictions on crypto, aligning with Beijing’s broader aim of promoting the yuan internationally while countering the United States’ progress on dollar-backed stablecoins. While the plan remains under consideration, it underscores the growing role of stablecoins as geopolitical and economic tools.

The Web3 space saw another round of drama with Kanye West’s YZY token. The memecoin reportedly reached a US$3 billion market cap within 40 minutes of launch before tanking, as blockchain investigators flagged insider-linked wallets. A connected “sniper” wallet was also tied to February’s LIBRA token scandal, which resurfaced in court this week as a judge unfroze US$57 million in stablecoins linked to the case. These episodes show how celebrity and hype-driven projects can generate huge short-term momentum but carry ongoing risks around transparency and insider advantages.

Looking forward, the data suggests Bitcoin’s cycle remains intact, even if institutional dynamics add new layers of complexity. Retail sentiment will likely continue to swing with price action, while policy decisions and treasury strategies shape the medium term outlook. Stablecoins are becoming a geopolitical focus, and Web3 experiments show both innovation and risk. Together, these forces suggest that while history offers a guide, the next phase of crypto will be defined just as much by new participants and policies as by old patterns.

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